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中国城乡居民食品消费碳排放的时空特征及情景达峰预测

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食品消费对碳循环产生重要影响,研究食品消费碳排放对治理碳排放具有重要意义.研究内容:基于1999-2020年中国31个省(区、市)城镇和乡村的食品消费碳排放数据,重点分析了2015-2020年各省城镇和乡村食品消费碳排放时空上的特征,并通过STIRPAT模型与情景分析法相结合,外推和预测了2021-2060年不同情境下城镇和乡村食品消费碳达峰状况.研究结果表明:(1)城镇食品消费人均碳排放呈现出波动上升的趋势,而乡村食品消费人均碳排放呈现出先下降后增长的趋势.(2)城镇食品消费碳排放呈现空间非常明显聚集,表现为同质集聚;乡村食品消费碳排放呈现出"空间非常明显聚集—空间随机分布—空间较明显聚集—空间非常明显聚集"的转变.(3)城镇食品消费碳达峰时间主要为2035年和2045年,乡村食品消费碳排放在2060年前未达峰,逐渐进入平台期.
The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Peak Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Food Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in China
Food consumption has a significant impact on the carbon cycle.It is of great significance to study the carbon emissions from food consumption for the control of carbon emissions.Research content:Based on the data of carbon emissions from food consumption in urban and rural areas of 31 provinces(autono-mous regions and municipalities)in China during 1999-2020,the paper focuses on analyzing the spatiotempo-ral characteristics of carbon emissions from food consumption in urban and rural areas of all the provinces in China during 2015-2020,and combines the STIRPAT model with scenario analysis to extrapolate and predict the carbon peak of urban and rural food consumption in different scenarios from 2021 to 2060.The results show that:(1)The per capita carbon emissions of urban food consumption show a fluctuating upward trend,while the per capita carbon emissions of rural food consumption show a trend of first decreasing and then in-creasing.(2)The carbon emissions of urban food consumption showed a obvious spatial aggregation,which showing a homogeneous agglomeration.The carbon emission of rural food consumption presents the transition of"spatial accumulation is very obvious-spatial random distribution-spatial accumulation is relatively obvi-ous-spatial accumulation is very obvious".(3)The peak time of urban food consumption carbon emission is mainly 2035 and 2045,while rural food consumption carbon emission will not reach the peak before 2060 and gradually enter the plateau period.

Food ConsumptionCarbon EmissionsSpatial-Temporal EvolutionCarbon Peak Prediction

张明锋、姚梦

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安徽大学管理学院,安徽 合肥 230039

食品消费 碳排放量 时空演变 碳达峰预测

2025

长白学刊
中共吉林省委党校

长白学刊

影响因子:0.658
ISSN:1003-5478
年,卷(期):2025.(1)