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货币政策降低系统性金融风险的有效性

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当前,我国正面临经济转型和金融体系全面改革的双重挑战.为了确保经济的稳定增长,研究货币政策对系统性金融风险的影响具有实际的指导意义.从四个维度14 个指标构建我国系统性金融风险指数,研究发现,从2011 年到2023 年,我国的系统性金融风险整体上呈现上升趋势.在数量型和价格型货币政策理论基础上,建立包含随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型,通过等间隔脉冲响应函数深入分析不同货币政策对系统性金融风险的时变冲击效应,表明需要搭配使用两种货币政策工具来降低金融危机的发生.
The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Reducing Systemic Financial Risks
At present,China is facing the double challenges of economic transformation and overall reform of finan-cial system.In order to ensure the stable growth of the economy,the study on the impact of monetary policy on sys-temic financial risk has practical guiding significance for the stable development of Chinese economy.This paper constructs a four-dimensional 14-index of systemic financial risk,and finds that from 2011 to 2023,systemic fi-nancial risk in China as a whole shows an upward trend.Based on quantitative and price-based monetary policy theory,a time-varying parameter Vector autoregression including stochastic volatility is established,the time-va-rying impact effect of different monetary policies on systemic financial risks through the equal-interval impulse re-sponse function has been analyzed,which indicates that it is necessary to use two monetary policy tools to reduce the occurrence of financial crisis.

monetary policysystemic financial riskSV-TVP-VAR model

陈娜、吴美玲

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福建师范大学协和学院,福州 350117

货币政策 系统性金融风险 SV-TVP-VAR模型

2024

长春工程学院学报(社会科学版)
长春工程学院

长春工程学院学报(社会科学版)

影响因子:0.274
ISSN:1009-8976
年,卷(期):2024.25(3)