Attribution of Runoff Change in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on the Modified Parameter Budyko Framework
Due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the middle rea-ches of the Yellow River continues to decrease.A regression equation between vegetation change and cli-mate change,as well as human activities,is constructed to determine the contribution rates to vegetation change,which are introduced into the basin characteristic parameters representing human activities in the Budyko framework to determine the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change then.The results show that the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to vegetation change are 14.73%and 85.27%,respectively.The elasticity of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and watershed characteristics increase from 3.04,2.03 and 3.05 before mutation to 3.48,2.48 and 3.33 af-ter mutation respectively.The sum of the relative contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction is-736245%,which has a certain promoting effect on runoff increase.However,the relative contribution of human activities to runoff reduction is 107.6245%,which is the main factor for runoff reduction in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.
the middle reaches of the Yellow RiverrunoffvegetationBudykocontribution rate
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