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华中地区人口变化趋势及影响因素统计分析

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研究华中地区2001—2020年人口变化的趋势和影响因素,分别构建河南、湖北、湖南三个省份的人口回归模型,并运用线性回归和主成分分析方法进行分析.结果显示,近年来华中地区人口总量呈现负增长趋势,人均地区生产总值、人口出生率、人口死亡率、城镇化率和产业结构升级指数均对总人口数量有显著影响,其中,人均地区生产总值和出生率与华中地区人口的总数量同方向变化.研究认为,政府应出台积极的生育政策,传播正确的生育理念,从而提高华中地区人口的出生率,加快华中地区经济发展来提高人均地区生产总值,以期能够缓解人口负增长的问题.
Statistical Analysis of Population Change Trends and Influencing Factors in Central China
This paper studies the trend and influencing factors of population change in central China from 2001 to 2020. At the same time, the population regression models of three provinces of Henan, Hubei,Hunan are constructed and analyzed by using the methods of linear regression and principal component analysis. The results show that the population in central China has a negative growth trend in recent years, and the per capita GDP, birth rate, mortality rate, urbanization rate and industrial structure upgrading index have a signifi-cant impact on the total population, among the per capita GDP and birth rate change in the same direction of the total population of cen-tral China. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as that the government should adopt an active birth policy to spread good birth idea so as to increase the birth rate of the population in central China accelerate the economic development of central China to in-crease the per capita GDP, etc., in the hope of alleviating the problem of negative population growth.

population change in Central Chinalinear regressionprincipal component analysis

滕飞、王怡然、谷馨雨、王红宇

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吉林师范大学数学与计算机学院,吉林 四平136000

华中地区人口变化 线性回归 主成分分析

吉林省教育厅高等教育教学改革重点项目

2022R2V5XNC001C

2024

长春师范大学学报
长春师范学院

长春师范大学学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.312
ISSN:1008-178X
年,卷(期):2024.43(4)
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