Prediction of Carbon Emission Scenarios in Chengdu Based on STIRPAT Model
Based on the grey correlation degree and correlation coefficient,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Chengdu,and uses STIRPAT model to predict the short-term and medium-term data of carbon emissions in Chengdu un-der the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario.The results show that urbanization rate,industrial structure and resident population are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in Chengdu.Under the baseline scenario,the growth trend of carbon emissions slows down,and it is expected to achieve the carbon peak target around 2034.Under the low-carbon scenario,carbon emissions have a downward trend,and the carbon peak target will be achieved around 2022.
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