传感技术学报2024,Vol.37Issue(12) :2064-2070.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1699.2024.12.007

基于改进ROA-LSTM时间序列的长江短期流量预测

Short-Term Forecast of Yangtze River Discharge Based on Improved ROA-LSTM Time Series

刘恒 范洋 王聪 丘仲锋
传感技术学报2024,Vol.37Issue(12) :2064-2070.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1699.2024.12.007

基于改进ROA-LSTM时间序列的长江短期流量预测

Short-Term Forecast of Yangtze River Discharge Based on Improved ROA-LSTM Time Series

刘恒 1范洋 1王聪 1丘仲锋1
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作者信息

  • 1. 南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院,江苏南京 210044
  • 折叠

摘要

为了更准确地预测长江流量的短期时序变化,克服传统LSTM模型在时间序列预测中参数选择困难和易陷入局部最优解的问题,通过将WOA算法与SFO算法改进的ROA优化算法与注意力机制相结合,构建了 ROA优化算法与LSTM模型相结合的时间序列预测组合模型ROA-LSTM.将该模型的预测结果与声层析系统的实测长江流量数据进行对比分析,在三日以内的短期预测中,该模型相比传统RNN模型预测准确度提升2~3倍,并在流量变化波动趋势和峰值预测方面表现更为出色.

Abstract

To enhance the accuracy of short-term predictions regarding the temporal variations in Yangtze River flow,and to address chal-lenges related to parameter selection as well as the propensity for traditional LSTM models to converge on local optimum solutions in time series forecasting,a hybrid model known as ROA-LSTM is developed.This model integrates an improved ROA optimization algorithm with an attention mechanism alongside the WOA and SFO algorithm,effectively combining the ROA optimization technique with the LSTM framework.The predictive performance of the proposed model is evaluated against actual Yangtze River flow data obtained from an acoustic tomography system.In terms of short-term forecasts spanning three days or less,the proposed model demonstrates a 2-3 fold increase in prediction accuracy compared to conventional RNN models.Furthermore,it exhibits superior capabilities in both trends forecasting in flow changes and peak predictions.

关键词

深度学习/短期流量预测/改进ROA-LSTM/注意力机制/参数优化

Key words

deep learning/short-flow forecasting/enhanced ROA-LSTM/attention mechanism/parameter optimization

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出版年

2024
传感技术学报
东南大学 中国微米纳米技术学会

传感技术学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.276
ISSN:1004-1699
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