Study on the Changing Patterns of Global Burden of HIV/A IDS Disease Based on Group-Based Trajectory Modeling
Objective To analyze the current situation and trend of the disease burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)infected people in both the world and China from 1990 to 2021 based on the group-based trajectory modeling(GBTM),so as to provide a reference for the prevention and control of AIDS in China.Methods The disease indicators of HIV/AIDS infected individuals from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021(GBD 2021)data.The Joinpoint model was used to describe the changing trends of HIV/AIDS disease burden globally and in China from 1990 to 2021,explore potential turning points,and fit a single trajectory model based on disease burden indicators.Results Joinpoint regression trend analysis showed that from 1990 to 2021,the standardized incidence rate of HIV/AIDS in both the world and China inCreased first and then decreased,theStandardized disability adjusted life years(DALYs)rate and the standardized mortality rate in the world increased first and then decreased,while the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALYs rate in China showed a fluctuating upward trend.Th analysis results of group trajectories showed that the age standardized incidence rate could be divided into three groups:low-level rising tratectorv vrouo,medium-leve1 rising tratectorv croup and high-level declining tratectorv group.The age standardized mortality and DAL Ys rate could be divided into three groups:low-level rising trajectory group,medium-level rising and then declining trajectory group,and high-level rising and then declining trajectory group.Conclusion There ar regional differences in the overall trend of the disease burden of HIV/AIDS.For the low-level rising trajectory group,strengthening prevention education and increasing testing opportunities can ensure that the infected individuals receive early management.For the medium-level rising and then declining trajectory group,regular evaluation of current prevention and control measures can he conducted to ensure rational allocation of resources and improve intervention effectiveness.For th high-level declining trajectory group,efforts should be made to strengthen basic education,promote the use of condoms,and reduce the number of new infections in order to lower the disease burden.
Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immune deficiency syndromeBurden of diseaseGroup-base trajectory modeling
万方数据
维普
