The establishment of ionospheric prediction model based on IRI model
The motion and changes of charged particles in the ionosphere are often influenced by solar radiation and geomagnetic field,they are also subject to the physical law.The conventional methods for ionospheric prediction ususally use mathematical approximation,so lack the support of physical mechanism.A prediction model of ionospheric electron density based on physical model is proposed in this paper,and the advantages of the proposed model compared with the traditional mathematical method is verified by simulation experiment in order to recur ionospheric error,and to make up the gap of obser-vation data.The reults show that the prediction error of TEC based on IRI is basically less than 50％of those calculated by polynomial,and it will gradually decrease with the increase of IGR weight,which is closer to the true value of the simulated TEC.It is found that the accuracy of the TEC calculated by the updated IRI2016 model is obviously improved by comparing the calculated results of IRI2016 model driven by the update IG12 index with the original IRI2016 model in the fitting and predicting periods,and the accuracy of residual standard deviation has been improved by 83.9％and 49.8％in low and mid latitude regions in the morning period,and by 63.0％and 60.6％in low and mid latitude regions in the afternoon period,respectively,which is more consistent with the GNSS TEC on the whole.Thus,it has been verified that the ionospheric prediction model based on the IRI model has higher accuracy in the low and mid latitude regions in China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
