测绘学报2024，Vol.53Issue(11) ：2125-2137.DOI:10.11947/j.AGCS.2024.20230473

基于PWV到达时间差估计台风运动状态的四参数模型

A four-parameter model for estimating typhoon motion states based on time difference of PWV arrival

何琦敏 张克非 李黎 连达军 赵伟 陈国栋 富尔江 王瑞
测绘学报2024，Vol.53Issue(11) ：2125-2137.DOI:10.11947/j.AGCS.2024.20230473
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  • 维普
  • 万方数据

基于PWV到达时间差估计台风运动状态的四参数模型

A four-parameter model for estimating typhoon motion states based on time difference of PWV arrival

何琦敏 1张克非 2李黎 3连达军 3赵伟 3陈国栋 3富尔江 4王瑞5
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作者信息

  • 1. 苏州科技大学地理科学与测绘工程学院,江苏苏州 215009;苏州科技大学苏州市空间信息智能技术与应用重点实验室,江苏苏州 215009;苏州博何智能信息科技有限公司,江苏苏州 215101
  • 2. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州 221116
  • 3. 苏州科技大学地理科学与测绘工程学院,江苏苏州 215009
  • 4. 北星空间信息技术研究院(南京)有限公司,江苏南京 211800
  • 5. 赣南科技学院资源与建筑工程学院,江西赣州 341001
  • 折叠

摘要

台风是一种严重影响人类生产和活动的灾害性天气,台风状态的有效监测对保障人类生命安全和减少财产损失具有重要意义.水汽是台风发展的主要原动力,本文提出了一种基于大气可降水量(PWV)到达时间差估计台风运动状态的四参数模型,该模型需要台风路径附近多个站点的PWV时间序列作为输入,台风的初始线速度、初始方向角、线加速度和角速度作为输出,进而可推算路径方向上任意时刻的台风线速度和方向角参数.以2019年中国区域"利奇马"和"白鹿"台风作为研究案例,首先,利用中国区域的全球导航卫星系统地面监测站和探空站反演的PWV产品,对用于估计台风运动状态的欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料得到的PWV产品进行精度评估;然后,分析了台风期间PWV空间分布和时间序列特征,研究了台风和水汽的移动趋势及其关系;最后,以中国气象局和浙江政务服务网提供的台风产品作为参考,对基于PWV到达时间差的四参数模型估计的"利奇马"和"白鹿"台风线速度和方向角进行了评估.评估结果显示,与中国气象局台风产品对比,本文模型估计的台风线速度和方向角平均Bias、RMSE、STD分别为0.25、6.39、6.38 km/h和4.68°、21.59°、20.83°;与浙江政务服务网台风产品对比,本文模型估计的台风线速度平均Bias、RMSE、STD分别为2.23、5.41、4.27 km/h.上述结果表明,基于PWV到达时间差的四参数模型能够反映台风的水汽运移规律,为监测台风活动提供一种补充方法.

Abstract

Typhoon is a kind of disastrous weather which seriously affects human production and activities.The effective moni-toring of typhoon status is of great significance to avoid and reduce the loss of people's life and property.Water vapor is the main driving force of typhoon development.In this paper,a four-parameter model(TDOPA-4)for estimating typhoon's move-ment based on the time difference of precipitable water vapor(PWV)arrival(TDOPA)was proposed,which requires PWV time series of several stations near the typhoon's path as inputs.The initial linear velocity,initial direction angle,linear accel-eration and angular velocity of the typhoon were estimated,and then the velocity and direction angle of the typhoon at any mo-ment can be further calculated.The typhoon Lekima and Bailu in China in 2019 were selected as cases study for verifying the model.First,the accuracy of ERA5 datasets derived PWV(ERA5-PWV)was tested by using the ground-based global naviga-tions satellite systems derived PWV in China,which was used to estimate the typhoon's movement based on the TDOPA-4 model.Then,the spatial distribution and temporal characteristics of PWV during typhoon's period were analyzed,and the moving trend and relationship between typhoon and water vapor were studied.Finally,the typhoon products provided by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and People's Government of Zhejiang Province(PGZP)were as reference,and the velocity and directional angle of Lekima and Bailu estimated from the TDOPA-4 model were evaluated.The results showed that the mean Bias,RMSE and STD were 0.25,6.39,6.38 km/h and 4.68°,21.59° and 20.83° compared to the results from the CMA,respectively.Compared with the results of the PGZP,the mean Bias,RMSE and STD are 2.23,5.41 and 4.27 km/h,respectively.The above results show that the TDOPA-4 can reflect the water vapor transport of typhoons,and provide a sup-plementary method for monitoring typhoon activities.

关键词

台风监测/ERA5/PWV到达时间差/GNSS/探空站

Key words

typhoon monitoring/ERA5/time difference of PWV arrival/GNSS/radiosonde station

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出版年

2024
测绘学报
中国测绘学会

测绘学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.602
ISSN：1001-1595
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