A four-parameter model for estimating typhoon motion states based on time difference of PWV arrival
Typhoon is a kind of disastrous weather which seriously affects human production and activities.The effective moni-toring of typhoon status is of great significance to avoid and reduce the loss of people's life and property.Water vapor is the main driving force of typhoon development.In this paper,a four-parameter model(TDOPA-4)for estimating typhoon's move-ment based on the time difference of precipitable water vapor(PWV)arrival(TDOPA)was proposed,which requires PWV time series of several stations near the typhoon's path as inputs.The initial linear velocity,initial direction angle,linear accel-eration and angular velocity of the typhoon were estimated,and then the velocity and direction angle of the typhoon at any mo-ment can be further calculated.The typhoon Lekima and Bailu in China in 2019 were selected as cases study for verifying the model.First,the accuracy of ERA5 datasets derived PWV(ERA5-PWV)was tested by using the ground-based global naviga-tions satellite systems derived PWV in China,which was used to estimate the typhoon's movement based on the TDOPA-4 model.Then,the spatial distribution and temporal characteristics of PWV during typhoon's period were analyzed,and the moving trend and relationship between typhoon and water vapor were studied.Finally,the typhoon products provided by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and People's Government of Zhejiang Province(PGZP)were as reference,and the velocity and directional angle of Lekima and Bailu estimated from the TDOPA-4 model were evaluated.The results showed that the mean Bias,RMSE and STD were 0.25,6.39,6.38 km/h and 4.68°,21.59° and 20.83° compared to the results from the CMA,respectively.Compared with the results of the PGZP,the mean Bias,RMSE and STD are 2.23,5.41 and 4.27 km/h,respectively.The above results show that the TDOPA-4 can reflect the water vapor transport of typhoons,and provide a sup-plementary method for monitoring typhoon activities.
typhoon monitoringERA5time difference of PWV arrivalGNSSradiosonde station
万方数据
维普
