Research on the Choices of the Policy after"RMB Internationalization"Modified the Framework of"Trilemma"——From the Perspective of Financial Risk Prevention
This article clarifies the influence of RMB internationalization on monetary policy independence,exchange rate stability and free capital flow in the theoretical logic.On this basis,this article further uses the framework of"trilemma"modified by"RMB in-ternationalization"to study the choices of the policy from the perspective of financial risk prevention.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the internationalization of RMB means that maintaining the independence of monetary policy in China needs to be discussed on a global scale,and the stability of RMB exchange rate is more determined by differences between onshore and offshore markets.Secondly,China is still in the stage of"trilemma"at present,and the situation is more complicated from the perspective of choosing combinations of policies to prevent risks.Thirdly,only the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risk of the stock market,from the various situations of choosing the linear combi-nations of two policies among the three policies.But after adding the international reserves to the model,the results of the choices of policy have the following changes:the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and exchange rate stability is conducive to reducing the risks of macroeconomic and monetary market;the combination between the modified independence of monetary policy and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risks of overall finance,macroeconomic and financial insti-tution;the combination between the exchange rate stability and capital account opening is conducive to reducing the risks of macro-economic and financial institution.Finally,choosing the linear combinations of one,half and the other half of the policy among the three policies,they can only reduce the risk of stock market.But after adding the international reserves to the model,these linear com-binations is conducive to reducing the risks of macroeconomic and monetary market.