Research on Accumulation Effect and Governance Path of Credit Debt Risk among Provinces in China
In the process of risk evolution from microl risk to systemic risk,regional risk is the transition stage.Effective prevention has become the focus of maintaining the stability of the capital market and the confidence in building a financial power.With the rap-id development of bond market,credit default events occurred frequently in bond market,and credit risks as"grey rhinoceros"were accumulated in the province.Based on transactions in the secondary market,this paper empirically investigated the intra-provincial contagion effect of credit bond risk.It is found that the occurrence of default would increase the risk premium of the secondary bond market within the province.With the increase of the default Amount,the risk premium of the secondary bond market within the prov-ince would be further increased,and the contagion effect of the western region and the low-grade bonds could be stronger.Mecha-nism analysis shows that the possible mechanisms are the strengthening of financing constraints、liquidity contraction and low finan-cial development.Further analysis shows that the regional transmission effect of credit bond risk is more significant in labor-inten-sive industries and state-owned enterprises.Based on this,relevant policy recommendations are proposed:Improve the risk early warning mechanism,increase diversified financing channels,optimize the industrial structure,and establish an inter-regional risk coordination mechanism.
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