Change of Fiscal Policy Multiplier Effect Under the Demand Contraction:Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Explanation
China's current economic work emphasizes that"active fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened and improve qual-ity and efficiency",and the effectiveness of fiscal policy has attracted much attention.Then,during the current period when China's economy is facing greater pressure of demand contraction,has the continuous positive fiscal policy regulation produced an ideal ef-fect?The empirical evidence of this paper shows that in the period of demand contraction after the epidemic,the proactive fiscal poli-cy adopted by China has a greater multiplier effect,and the regulation effect has been significantly improved.In order to explain the theoretical mechanism behind the empirical evidence,this paper constructs a New Keynesian DSGE model with occasional con-straints to analyze the deep mechanism of fiscal policy multiplier change after demand contraction.Theoretical simulation found that,as demand contraction led to the tightening of household credit constraints,its marginal propensity to consume increased,at this time to take active fiscal policy directly increased the liquidity of households,relaxing their budget constraints,which in turn produced a greater fiscal multiplier effect.Therefore,in the current practice of strengthening the coordination of various types of policies,it is recommended to take active investment fiscal policy as the leading one,and to maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure to support the alleviation of the financial burden of households,so as to help China's macroeconomic control in the period of demand contraction to be more accurate and effective.
万方数据
维普
