Saving or Catering:Analysis of Bank's Behavior in Manipulating Loan Loss Provisions
Based on the data of China's commercial banks from 2000 to 2022 and the method of regression discontinuity design,this paper studies the aggregation phenomenon of the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks at the regulatory level,and empirical-ly analyzes the internal mechanism of its occurrence.The study finds that:(1)Provision coverage ratio of most banks has the aggrega-tion phenomenon at the regulatory level;(2)Banks have the motivation to manipulate loan loss provisions upwards during the econom-ic upswing period,and are more inclined to manipulate loan loss provisions downward during the economic downturn;(3)The purpose of tax saving will significantly promote the effect of"reserving grain in harvest years",and enhanced confidence in management will weaken the behavior of commercial banks to"catering to the regulatory authorities".(4)The expansion of the financial opening-up will promote the behavior of commercial banks to manipulate loan loss provisions and hide profits,and the rise of economic policy un-certainty will significantly promote the behavior of commercial banks to manipulate loan loss provisions to hide risks.(5)According to the results of heterogeneity analysis,large-scale banks prefer to"reserve grain in harvest years",while small-scale banks prefer to"cater to the regulatory authorities".This paper provides theoretical support and empirical basis for strengtheningprovisionsupervi-sionand improving the dynamic provision management of commercial banks.
Loan Loss ProvisionsLoan Provision RatioRisk ManipulationRegression Discontinuity
万方数据
