长江科学院院报2024,Vol.41Issue(2) :7-13,20.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20221303

Kriging水动力学代理模型在水库群优化调度中的应用

Application of Kriging-based Hydrodynamic Surrogate Model for Optimal Scheduling of Cascade Reservoirs

徐杨 吕昊 刘帅 方威 覃晖
长江科学院院报2024,Vol.41Issue(2) :7-13,20.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20221303

Kriging水动力学代理模型在水库群优化调度中的应用

Application of Kriging-based Hydrodynamic Surrogate Model for Optimal Scheduling of Cascade Reservoirs

徐杨 1吕昊 2刘帅 3方威 3覃晖3
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作者信息

  • 1. 三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌 443000
  • 2. 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州 311122
  • 3. 华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉 430074;华中科技大学数字流域科学与技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430074
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摘要

为解决传统水动力学模型结合调度模型求解耗时长的难题,使用代理模型模拟水动力学模型以提升求解效率.从金沙江下游—三峡梯级水库调度实际出发,结合水动力学和代理模型相关理论,建立了基于Kriging代理模型的水库群多目标调度模型并采用多目标进化算法对模型进行求解,最后采用投影追踪法对得到的多目标帕累托前沿进行决策.研究结果表明,代理模型的平均模拟误差≤1.5%,能够较为精确地替代原有长耗时水动力学模型并结合调度模型给出具有竞争关系的帕累托前沿及合理的折衷方案,对促进梯级水库综合效益发挥提供理论依据.

Abstract

To address the time-consuming nature of traditional hydrodynamic model combined with scheduling mod-el,we propose a surrogate model as an approximation to enhance efficiency.The research focuses on the practical scheduling of cascade reservoirs from lower Jinsha River to the Three Gorges.By combining hydrodynamics theory with the Kriging surrogate model,we established a multi-objective dispatching model for a multi-reservoir system,and subsequently solved the model using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm.Ultimately,we identified the multi-objective Pareto front of the model by adopting the projection pursuit method in decision-making.Research findings demonstrate that the surrogate model exhibits an average simulation error of less than 1.5%,effectively re-placing the time-consuming hydrodynamic model while generating a competitive Pareto front and providing reasona-ble compromise solutions.These outcomes lay a theoretical foundation for advancing the comprehensive benefits of cascade reservoirs.

关键词

多目标优化调度/Kriging模型/水动力学模型/投影追踪法/梯级水库

Key words

multi-objective optimal operation/Kriging model/hydrodynamic model/projection pursuit/cascade reservoirs

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基金项目

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200303)

出版年

2024
长江科学院院报
长江科学院

长江科学院院报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.618
ISSN:1001-5485
参考文献量15
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