In addressing groundwater utilization challenges in the North China Plain(NCP),we predicted the groundwater utilization trends over the next two decades considering the impact of altered irrigation practices by u-sing the calibrated distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model.In the prediction we employed three distinct scenari-os:the current situation maintenance scenario(MS1),an irrigation water volume change scenario(MS2),and an irrigation frequency change scenario(MS3).Our findings indicate that:1)Groundwater levels present a consistent downward trajectory across all scenarios.The annual decline ranges from 0.335 to 1.648 m/a under MS1,0.298 to 1.588 m/a under MS2,and 0.303 to 1.607 m/a under MS3.Particularly concerning is the emergence of groundwa-ter depression cones in the eastern coastal and Beijing-Tianjin areas,with minimal mitigation observed from changes in irrigation practices.2)Although modifying the irrigation facilitates some recovery in groundwater levels and aqui-fer storage,the impact varies.Decreasing irrigation frequency yields greater benefits compared to reducing irrigation water volume.Relative to MS1,MS2 and MS3 demonstrate potential to restore aquifer storage by 0.06 and 0.12 me-ters respectively over a 20-year period.3)However,reliance solely on altering irrigation practices falls short in halting the ongoing depletion of groundwater resources in the NCP.A comprehensive,long-term approach integra-ting additional measures is imperative to ensure sustainable groundwater management in the region.
groundwatersustainable utilizationchanges in irrigationMIKE SHE modelNorth China Plain
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