Based on temperature data from Tashkurgan meteorological station and flood data from Kulukelangan sta-tion,we investigated the probability distribution characteristics of flood peak discharge and 1 d,3 d,and 7 d total flood volume of Yarkant River by using Copula functions.Additionally,we explored the relationship between cli-mate factor variations and extreme flood events through wavelet coherence analysis.Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence return period of two variables surpasses the single variable return period,which,in turn,exceeds the joint return period of two variables.Both the joint return period and the co-occurrence return period increase with the continuous rises in peak flow and flood volume,leading to a decreasing likelihood of corresponding extreme flood events.We also found a high coherence between summer daily average temperature and flood peak discharge series on an interdecadal scale.The summer daily average temperature tends to change 0.13-0.31 cycles prior to the occurrence of flood peak flow.By using Copula functions,we established a two-dimensional statistical model be-tween summer daily average temperature and flood peak spanning from 1957 to 2010.Notably,as the return period of a single variable increases,the disparity between joint return period and co-occurrence return period of the corre-sponding two variables widens.As summer daily average temperature rises,the likelihood of floods in different re-turn periods also increases.These research outcomes carry significant scientific value and offer technical support for the flood risk management and adaptive measures in the Yarkant River Basin.
关键词
洪水极值/气候因子/重现期/Copula函数/小波相干/频率分析/叶尔羌河源流区
Key words
extreme value of flood/climatic factors/return period/Copula function/Wavelet coherence/probabil-ity analysis/source flow area of the Yarkant River
维普
万方数据