基于HEC-HMS模型的三峡区间洪水模拟
Simulation of Flood in Three Gorges Region Based on HEC-HMS Model
王雨潇 1刘波 1王文鹏 2吴光东 3张天宇 4孙营营1
作者信息
- 1. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210098
- 2. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210098;河海大学水利部水利大数据重点实验室,南京 211100
- 3. 长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉 430010
- 4. 重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147
- 折叠
摘要
三峡区间面积在长江上游的流域面积占比5.6％,但在三峡入库洪水组成中,区间形成的洪水占比可达10％以上,可见区间暴雨洪水是水库防洪安全必须考量的重要因素.采用2007-2011年三峡入库流量,上游边界寸滩和武隆站实测流量资料,建立了基于HEC-HMS的三峡区间洪水模拟模型,用于分析区间暴雨洪水与入库洪水的关系.根据入库洪水来源组成分析和资料特点,提出分类调参、分期检验的区间洪水建模方案:对以上游来水为主型洪水,率定汇流参数;对区间降水贡献较大型洪水,率定产流参数;对2012年以后的模拟洪水过程,以三峡水库运行实录发布的洪水过程线为比对基准.结果表明:模型精度良好,率定期和验证期洪峰流量相对误差在±20％以内,峰现时间误差＜3 h;经与长江三峡工程运行实录比对,模型适用于模拟2012年后的三峡入库洪水过程.以20160626场次洪水为典型,分析该场区间洪水对入库洪水的峰值贡献率达27.2％,使得峰现时间提前16 h.研究成果可用于三峡区间洪水的影响研究,也可作为区间流域洪水模拟模型建模方案的技术参考.
Abstract
The Three Gorges Interval(TGI)accounts for 5.6％of the upper Yangtze River basin area.However,floods originating from this region constitute over 10％of the floods in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR).Hence,heavy rainfall-induced flood is an important factor that must be taken into consideration in ensuring reservoir flood control safety.Based on TGR inflow data during 2007-2011 and flow data from upstream Cuntan and Wulong sta-tions,we developed a HEC-HMS flood simulation model to examine the correlation between rainstorm floods in the TGI and inflow floods into the reservoir.We proposed an interval flood modeling scheme based on classified parame-ter adjustment and staged testing according to flood sources:for floods primarily driven by upstream inflows,the flood confluence parameters were calibrated;for floods predominantly influenced by regional precipitation,the flow yield parameters were calibrated.To validate the model,we compared simulated flood processes post-2012 with op-erational records of the TGR,demonstrating model accuracy with the relative errors of peak flow rate in calibration and verification periods within±20％and peak time errors below 3 hours.Comparisons with Three Gorges Project(TGP)operation records confirmed the model's suitability for simulating post-2012 TGR flood processes.Exami-ning the flood event on June 26,2016,as a representative case,we observed a significant 27.2％contribution rate of flood peak within the reservoir,with a peak time advance of 16 hours.These findings facilitate understanding TGR flood impacts and serve as a technical reference for flood modeling schemes within the basin region.
关键词
三峡区间/洪水过程模拟/HEC-HMS模型/参数率定Key words
Three Gorges region/flood process simulation/HEC-HMS model/parameter calibration引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900601)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B220201028)
三峡气候监测项目(SK2021015)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据