珠江流域浔江防洪保护区洪灾风险评估
Flood Risk Assessment of Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area in the Pearl River Basin
冯刚 1黄强 1方伟 1李沛 1郑旭东 1杨程1
作者信息
- 1. 西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安 710048
- 折叠
摘要
洪水灾害具有发生频率高、破坏性强的特点,风险评估可揭示高风险热点区及其驱动因素,有助于科学、高效构建防洪减灾体系.以珠江流域浔江防洪保护区为研究对象,构建HEC-RAS水动力模型,提取最大流速、水深评估洪水危险性;利用层次分析法和熵权法,考虑人口密度、国内生产总值(GDP)和土地利用等要素,评估承灾体的暴露度和脆弱性;最后计算洪灾风险,分析洪灾风险时空动态变化.结果表明:水动力模型的平均命中率达0.80以上,误报率低于0.28;在浔江防洪保护区内,中高风险区占5.20％以上;1997-2017年间,不同等级的洪水风险均呈加剧趋势,值得警惕的是中高风险区近46.69％区域风险上升趋势显著.研究成果可为科学高效的洪灾风险管理提供决策支持.
Abstract
Flood disasters are highly frequent and strongly destructive.Risk assessment reveals high-risk hotspots and their driving factors,aiding in the establishment of a scientific and efficient flood control and disaster reduction system.This study focuses on the Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area in the Pearl River Basin.Initially,the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model was constructed to extract maximum flow velocity and water depth for flood risk e-valuation.Subsequently,the exposure and vulnerability of affected populations were assessed by using the AHP and entropy weight methods in consideration of factors including population density,GDP,and land use.Finally,flood risk was quantified,and spatial-temporal changes were analyzed.Results indicate that the hydrodynamic model a-chieves an average accuracy exceeding 0.80,with a false positive rate below 0.28.Medium to high-risk zones in the Xunjiang Flood Control Protection Area exceed 5.20％.From 1997 to 2017,risks of various levels displayed an in-creasing trend.Notably,nearly 46.69％of medium to high-risk zones exhibited significant upward trends.These findings support informed decision-making in flood risk management practices.
关键词
洪灾风险评估/洪水淹没/水动力模拟/防洪保护区/演变规律/珠江流域Key words
flood risk assessment/flood inundation/hydrodynamic simulation/flood control protection area/evolu-tion law/Pearl River Basin引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3006502)
国家自然科学基金项目(52009100)
国家自然科学基金项目(51879213)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2021M692602)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据