首页|基于云模型的引调水工程突发水污染事件风险评价——以引江济淮工程(河南段)为例

基于云模型的引调水工程突发水污染事件风险评价——以引江济淮工程(河南段)为例

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开展引调水工程突发水污染事件风险评价,降低突发水污染事件的危险性和危害程度,对发挥引调水工程综合效益、提高区域供水安全保障能力等具有十分重要的意义.基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型,构建能反映风险源特征和风险受体特性的引调水工程突发水污染事件风险评价指标体系,提出基于云模型的引调水工程突发水污染事件风险等级评价方法,定量评价引江济淮工程(河南段)突发水污染事件风险.结果表明,引江济淮工程(河南段)突发水污染事件风险较低,有5个评价河段的风险等级均为一般(Ⅳ级),2个评价河段的风险等级为重大(Ⅱ级),与从风险源危险性、风险受体易损性、风险控制有效性等3个方面开展的定性评价结果一致.研究结果为合理评价引调水工程突发水污染事件风险提供了新的方法,为引江济淮工程(河南段)突发水污染事件风险管理提供了依据.
Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model:A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project
Assessing the risks and reducing the hazard level of water pollution emergencies in water diversion pro-jects are of prominent significance to leveraging the benefits of such projects and enhancing regional water supply safety.The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses(DPSIR)model was employed to establish a risk evaluation index system that reflects the characteristics of risk sources and risk receptors.A method of evaluating the risk grades of water pollution emergencies was proposed by utilizing the cloud model to quantitatively assess the risk wa-ter pollution emergency in the Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project.Findings re-vealed low risks of water pollution emergency in the studied section.Specifically,the risks of two sections were classified as significant(Level Ⅱ),while five were designated as general(Level Ⅳ).These results aligned with qualitative evaluations considering risk source magnitude,risk receptor vulnerability,and risk control effectiveness.Our study offers a novel approach for assessing the risks of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects and lays a foundation for risk management in the study area.

water pollution emergencywater diversion projectcloud modelrisk assessmentHenan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

陈述、王辉、张泰赫、范嘉懿、刘爽、王静

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长江科学院流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430010

河南省引江济淮工程有限公司,郑州 450003

西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局,拉萨 850000

突发水污染事件 引调水工程 云模型 风险评价 引江济淮工程(河南段)

国家自然科学基金国际合作项目引江济淮工程(河南段)工程科研服务项目

52261145744HNYJJH/JS/FWKY-2021004

2024

10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

长江科学院院报
长江科学院

长江科学院院报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.618
ISSN：1001-5485
年,卷(期)：2024.41(10)