Simulation Study of Major Chinese Social Risk Based on System Dynamics
Based on the system dynamics model,this paper attempts to draw a causal loop dia-gram and flow chart illustrating the major social risk system.We simulate and predict socially significant risks caused by subsystems,and use the comprehensive index method to conduct an early warning of socially significant risks to monitor them in China.The results show that the changes in the comprehensive values of the macro-economy,ecological environment,and social governance subsystems are relatively small,with stable trends.The overall comprehensive index of major social risks shows a slight upward trend,but turns to a downward trend by the year 2025.To address and alleviate these risks effectively,the government could enhance the precision of routine risk and emergency management mechanisms.Additionally,the government could strengthen the institutionalized control of major social risks,laying a foundation for preventing and resolving these risks effectively.
major social risksystem dynamicssimulation prediction
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
