财经智库2024，Vol.9Issue(1) ：23-58.

金融制裁与地缘政治:西方对俄罗斯经济战的策略与俄罗斯的反制措施分析

Financial Sanctions and Geopolitics:An Analysis of Western Countries'Strategy of Economic War Against Russia and Russia's Countermeasures

巩冰 杨斯尧 戴睿
财经智库2024，Vol.9Issue(1) ：23-58.
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金融制裁与地缘政治:西方对俄罗斯经济战的策略与俄罗斯的反制措施分析

Financial Sanctions and Geopolitics:An Analysis of Western Countries'Strategy of Economic War Against Russia and Russia's Countermeasures

巩冰 1杨斯尧 2戴睿3
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院 北京市房山区长于大街11号 102488
  • 2. 清华大学五道口金融学院 北京市海淀区成府路43号 100083
  • 3. 新加坡国立大学理学院 新加坡下肯特岭路10号 119076
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摘要

2022年俄乌冲突爆发后,以美欧为首的西方国家联盟对俄罗斯实施了史无前例的全方位"海啸式"金融制裁,俄罗斯主权机构、银行和重点行业企业从全球金融市场和贸易中获取"存量"和"流量"金融资产的能力遭受到严重冲击.西方制裁触发了俄国内"资本外流—卢布贬值"的逆向反馈,风险在金融体系和实体经济中快速蔓延,金融和经济的脆弱性大幅提升.面对极端制裁,俄罗斯构建起了一套"事前"与"事后"相结合的应对策略体系,包括事前的制裁预防性措施、事后的制裁防御性和反击性措施,这样有助于缓解制裁对俄金融和经济的冲击,避免其陷入深度经济衰退.然而,俄罗斯在采取反制裁措施中也耗费了巨大成本,其金融经济与全球隔离度显著加深,能否在中长期抵御制裁的负面冲击尚不确定.西方与俄罗斯间的金融制裁攻防战为中国提供了宝贵的案例,有诸多经验教训值得借鉴.我国需在金融制裁的事前预案、危机应对、制裁反击等三方面尽早制定系统性战略框架和政策体系,建立多领域的跨部门协调机制和政策工具组合,为我国化解潜在制裁冲击,反击制胜提供最大支持.

Abstract

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict in 2022,United States and its Western allies imposed unprecedented all-encompassing financial sanctions on Russia,in which the access to"stock"and"flow"financial assets of Russian sovereign institutions,banks and key enterprises has been severely impacted.The financial sanctions triggered the negative feedback of capital outflow and Ruble depreciation,risks quickly spread in Russia's financial system and real economy,and the vulnerability of its finance and economy has increased significantly.Facing extreme financial sanctions,Russia built a strategy system consisting of"ex-ante"and"ex-post"measures,including ex-ante preventive measures and ex-post counter measures.These measures alleviated shocks of the sanctions on Russia's financial and economic systems and prevented the country from plunging into deep economic recession.However,Russia has also incurred significant costs in adopting the counter-sanction measures,and its isolation from the global finance and economy deepened.It remains uncertain whether Russia can withstand the long-term shock of the sanctions.The financial sanctions between the Western coalition and Russia provide a valuable case study for China.It is necessary for China to formulate a systematic strategy and policy framework as soon as possible in the aspects of planning,crisis response,counterattack against sanctions,and establish a multidisciplinary cross-sectoral coordinating mechanism and a combination of policy instruments to provide strong support for mitigating and resolving the potential impacts of sanctions.

关键词

金融制裁/地缘政治/俄罗斯

Key words

Financial Sanction/Geopolitics/Russia

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出版年

2024
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财经智库

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