摘要
人工智能技术迅速发展所产生的劳动力市场风险需要引起高度重视.与工业自动化时期的技术进步相比,人工智能技术对劳动力市场的影响呈现更为广泛、深入和复杂的特点.人工智能主要对认知型的工作任务和工作岗位产生影响,且对处于较高发展阶段的国家和具有较高人力资本水平的劳动力产生更大影响.基于中国城市劳动力调查(CULS)数据,本文发现:专业技术人员是受人工智能影响最大的群体,而制造业工人受到的影响较小.人工智能对劳动力市场的整体影响还受一国就业结构、工作任务构成、技术渗透率和法律规制的影响.因此,相比美国,从短期来看,人工智能不太可能对中国的整体就业形势产生显著影响.但考虑到中国独特的经济结构、庞大的劳动力市场以及正在进行的产业升级,人工智能的影响可能更为复杂和深远.因此,为应对人工智能带来的劳动力市场风险,应加强劳动力市场监测和基础数据收集、发展人工智能互补性技术和产业、进一步开展人工智能影响的前瞻性研究.
Abstract
As AI technology rapidly advances,its potential risks for the labor market deserve significant attention.Compared with the technological advances in the era of industrial automation,the impact of AI technology on the labor market is more extensive,deep,and complex.AI has a predominantly impact on cognitive tasks and jobs,and has a greater impact on countries at a advanced stage of development and labors with a higher level of human capital.Based on data from the China Urban Labor Survey,this paper finds that professionals and technical personnel are most affected by AI,whereas manufacturing workers are less affected.The overall impact of AI is also influenced by a country's employment structure,the nature of jobs and tasks,the rate of technology adoption,and legal regulations.As a result,AI is unlikely to have a significant impact on China's overall employment situation in the short term compared to the United States.But given China's unique economic structure,huge labor market,and ongoing industrial upgrading,the impact of AI could be more complex and far-reaching.This paper proposes policy recommendations such as better monitoring the labor market and collecting basic data,developing complementary AI technologies and industries,and conducting forward-looking research on the impact of AI.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据