中美贸易摩擦政策模拟分析:基于动态GTAP模型
Simulation analysis of China-US trade friction:Based on dynamic GTAP model
娄峰1
作者信息
- 1. 中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所, 北京 100732
- 折叠
摘要
基于中美贸易摩擦的现实情况,根据相关理论和GTAP数据库,构建一个动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟分析了中美贸易摩擦三种情景.结果表明:中美贸易摩擦虽然对中、美两国经济产生一定的负面影响,不利于两国的经济增长、社会福利和就业,但这种负面影响相对较小.就我国来说,中美贸易摩擦改变不了我国经济社会发展总趋势,我国经济仍将保持平稳、较快的发展状态.
Abstract
According to the actual situation of China-US trade friction, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model was constructed based on relevant theories and GTAP database. Three scenarios of China-US trade friction were simulated and analyzed. The results show that although the China-US trade friction has some negative effects on the economic growth, social welfare and employment of both China and the United States, the negative effects are relatively small, which can not change the general trend of China's economic and social development, and China's economy will keep a stable and rapid development.
关键词
中美贸易摩擦/动态GTAP/关税税率Key words
US-China trade friction/dynamic GTAP/tariff rate引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(17AJL014)
出版年
2019
NETL
NSTL
万方数据