Study on the Structural Changes in the School-Age Population and the Optimized Allocation of Educational Resources—Take Anhui Province as an Example
Using the data of four population censuses in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2020,this study further used the population age transfer model to forecast the development trend of the school-age population in Anhui Province from 2021 to 2040 on the basis of describing the changes in the size,urban and rural structure and spatial distribution of the 3-22 year old school-age population.The study found that the total school-age popula-tion will drop from 21.768 million in 1990 to 14.048 million in 2020,and will fall below 10 million in 2040.The pre-school population began to decline from 2020,and the peak of primary school population,middle school population,high school population,and university school population were in 2023,2026,2029,and 2032,respectively.In 2026,the urban school-age population will peak at 9.34 million and then decline,and the trend of school-age population gathering to central cities is more significant.In the process of school-age population change,the educational resources in Anhui Province will face some prominent problems,such as shortage and surplus alternately,idle rural educational resources,uneven allocation of high-quality educational resources,and imbalance between actual demand and supply.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the moni-toring of the change of school-age population,tap the new quality productivity in the field of school-age popula-tion,and promote the allocation of educational resources to adapt to the population situation by reforming the school-running mode,optimizing the layout of schools,utilizing idle resources,and establishing the flexible withdrawal mechanism of teachers.
school-age populationpopulation forecasteducation resource allocationnegative population growth
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