Prediction and evaluation of nomogram model on risk of hyperuricemia in overweight and obese children and adolescents
Objective To establish a nomogram prediction model of hyperuricemia(HUA)onset risk in overweight and obese children and adolescents in order to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of HUA in this population.Methods The clinical data of 1 410 overweight and obese children and adolescents aged 6-17 years old visiting in this hospital from September 2021 to August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.A total of 987 overweight and obese children and adolescents were randomly extracted according to a ratio of 7:3 to establish the model,and the remaining 423 cases were validated internally.Referring to the definition of high uric acid in"Zhu-futang Practical Pediatrics",the subjects were divided into high uric acid group and non-high uric acid group.The logis-tic regression analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of HUA in overweight and obese children and adoles-cents.The nomogram model was constructed by using the R language.The area under the receiver operating character-istic(ROC)curve(AUC),decision analysis curve(DIC),clinical impact curve(CIC)and C-index were used to evalu-ate the predictive ability of the model,and the Bootstrap repeated sampling method(taking samples for 1000 times)was used for internal validation of the model.Results The results of multivariate analysis showed that the age(OR=2.324,95％CI:1.155-4.672,P=0.018),gender(OR=0.456,95％CI:0.256-0.810,P=0.007),triglycerides(OR=3.775,95％CI:2.321-6.138,P＜0.001),blood calcium(OR=26.986,95％CI:3.186-228.589,P=0.003)and blood creatinine(OR=1.047,95％CI:1.026-1.070,P＜0.001)were the influen-cing factors of HUA in overweight and obese children and adolescents.AUC of the ROC curve of the model was 0.840,the sensitivity was 0.786,the specificity was 0.762,the Youden index was 0.548,and the C-index was 0.840.The risk probability of DC A was 0.1-0.8,the net benefit rate of both models was＞0,AUC of ROC curve in the internal verification was 0.871.Conclusion The constructed nomogram in this study has a good predictive efficiency for the onset risk of HUA in overweight and obese children and adolescents,and may provide reference for the early diagnosis and treatment of this population.
overweight and obesitychildrenadolescentshyperuricemiarisk factorsnomogramspre-dictive models
万方数据
维普
