Establishment and validation of a second primary hepatocellular carcinoma risk model based on SEER database
Objective To construct a prognostic risk model for the second primary hepatocellular carci-noma (spHCC).Methods The clinical data of spHCC patients in the Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Re-sults (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015 were retrospectively analyzed.The demographic and clinical varia-bles of specific causes of death were compared.The 3-year mortality rates of various causes of death were cal-culated,and the influencing factors were analyzed to establish a competitive risk model.The model was valida-ted by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve.Results The case data of 1777 pa-tients were extracted.The 3-year cumulative mortality of spHCC patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) specific death was 47.3％.The 3-year cumulative mortality of spHCC patients with the first primary cancer (FPC) specific death was 5.5％,and the other causes of death was 23.1％.Age,T stage,N stage,M stage and surgery were the influencing factors of HCC-specific death in spHCC patients (P<0.05).Interval time,surgery and chemotherapy were the influencing factors of FPC-specific death in spHCC patients (P<0.05).Marital status,T stage,N stage and chemotherapy were the influencing factors of other cause-specific death in spHCC patients (P<0.05).The C index of the model was 0.718 (95％CI:0.693-0.743).The ROC curve and calibration curve confirmed the accuracy and predictive ability of the model.Conclusion The model has a good effect in predicting the risk of cancer-specific death in spHCC.
second primary malignant tumorSEER databasecompetitive risk regression analysisnomogramhepatocellular carcinoma
万方数据
维普
