Heavy overload forecasting of distribution transformer during the spring festival based on BP network and grey model
Load forecasting of the distribution substation during Spring Festival is significant to formulate measures for heavy load and overload of power distribution transformer,which also prevents equipment damage of the distribution substation and guarantees the reliability and safety of the residential electricity.In view of the characteristics of the electric load in Spring Festival, the fuzzy clustering method was used to divide the period of Spring Festival.Then based on BP neural network and grey prediction system,a new model for the daily maximum load forecasting of distribution transformer during Spring Festival was established.By combining the forecasting results with normal parameters of power distribution transformer,it can determine the operation condition of heavy load or overload.The case analysis results show that the proposed method is with high accuracy and feasibility in practical application.
power load in spring festivaldistribution transformerheavy load and overload fore-castingBP networkgrey model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
