基于模糊推理的电网风险评估及线路重要度辨识
Grid risk assessment and line importance identification based on fuzzy reasoning
刘明顺 1龙志君 2赵立进 3黄良 3林成 1苏华英 1韩文浩 2张晓伟 2张思颖2
作者信息
- 1. 贵州电网有限责任公司 电力调度控制中心,贵州 贵阳 550000
- 2. 武汉大学 电气工程学院,湖北 武汉 430072
- 3. 贵州中网有限责任公司 电力科学研究院,贵州 贵阳 550000
- 折叠
摘要
由于电网事故发生的不确定性和事故造成的严重后果,需要建立风险模型及指标体系,实现电网风险评估和线路重要度辨识.基于此,建立电网风险评估模型,从电压越限、支路潮流过载及负荷削减量3个方面建立风险指标评价体系;基于模糊推理的方法、静态安全分析和风险理论,结合各子风险指标,得到各支路发生故障事故状态下的综合风险值并进行排序分级.以 IEEE-RTS79系统为例进行仿真计算,仿真结果表明:该方法实现了电网综合风险评估的量化和分级,能实现线路重要度辨识,为安全预警和制定差异化运维策略提供参考.
Abstract
Due to the uncertainty of the grid accident and the serious consequences of accident, it is necessary to establish the risk model and the index system to realize the grid risk evaluation and the line importance identification. The grid risk evaluation model was built in this paper, and the risk index evaluation system was established based on the following aspects, including voltage limitation, branch power flow and load shedding. Based on the fuzzy reasoning method, the static security analysis and risk theory, the risk index was obtained by combining the line breaking accident case comprehensive risk value and sort classification. Taking IEEE-RTS79 system as an example, the simulation results showed that the proposed method could realize the quantification and classification of the comprehensive risk assessment, and identify the line importance, which could provide theoretical basis for security pre-warning and the operation maintenance strategy.
关键词
电网/风险评估/模糊推理/线路重要度Key words
power grid/risk assessment/fuzzy inference/line importance——————————————引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(GZ2014-2-0049)
出版年
2017
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据