首页|输电线路气象风险精细化建模及气象灾害的在线预警防御策略

输电线路气象风险精细化建模及气象灾害的在线预警防御策略

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气象因素在输电线路稳定运行中起着重要作用,在评估风险时应予以考虑.为此,提出一种输电线路气象风险预警及防护方法.该方法考虑时空发电预测、设备健康和可靠性评估以及概率负荷预测等方面对气象风险进行精细化建模,并基于气象危害、电网脆弱性和灾后恢复成本提出一种新的风险度量标准.此外,针对负荷中断恢复以及缓解用电拥堵,提出一种气象灾害的在线预警防御策略.最后,在案例中对所提出的方法和策略进行测试分析,其结果可以验证方法和策略的有效性.
Refined meteorological risk modeling of transmission lines and online warning and defense strategies of meteorological disasters
Meteorological factors play an important role in the stable operation of transmission lines,which should be considered in risk assessment.This paper presents a method of transmission line meteorological risk early warning and protection.Considering the temporal and spatial power generation forecasting,equipment health and reliability assessment,probabilistic load forecasting and other aspects,a refined meteorological risk model is established,and a new risk measurement standard is proposed based on Meteorological hazards,grid vulnerability and post disaster recovery cost.In addition,aiming at the restoration of load interruption and the alleviation of power congestion,the online warning and defense strategy of meteorological disasters is proposed.Finally,the proposed method is tested and analyzed in the simulation to verify the effectiveness of the method.

extreme weatherrisk modelingdisaster early warningtransmission linesload forecasting

卢明、郭志明、孟高军、苑司坤、梁允

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国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南 郑州 450052

南京工程学院电力工程学院,江苏 南京 211167

极端天气 风险建模 灾害预警 输电线路 负荷预测

国家自然科学基金国网河南省电力公司科技项目

5187710152170223000Y

2024

电力科学与技术学报
长沙理工大学

电力科学与技术学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.85
ISSN:1673-9140
年,卷(期):2024.39(1)
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