基于改进GM(1,1)模型的变电站检修运维费用预测

Prediction of substation maintenance and repair costs with improved GM(1,1)model

李智威 ¹王依燃 ²张赵阳 ¹王巍 ¹方钊 ³孙利平 ¹唐欣⁴

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作者信息

1. 国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉 430000
2. 东南大学电气工程学院江苏南京 210096
3. 国网湖北省电力有限公司,湖北武汉 430000
4. 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南长沙 410114
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摘要

针对变电站因设备的缺陷而引起的全寿命周期成本(life cycle cost,LCC)中检修运维费用拨付波动现象,分别采用传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型和组合改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型,对未来3年地市A的变电站检修运维费用进行预测,优化现有的成本拨付策略.结果表明,2种模型的预测精度等级均为一级,但改进后模型的平均相对误差及后验差比值均低于传统模型,说明改进模型比传统模型具有更高的预测精度,能够更好地预测变电站的检修运维费用.最后,利用改进的预测模型对某地市A的2019-2021年变电站检修运维费用进行预测.

Abstract

Aiming at the fluctuation of maintenance and repair costs in substation life cycle cost,a traditional grey model and an improved grey model are adopted respectively,to forecast the maintenance and repair costs of a substation in the next 3 years in order to optimize cost allocation strategy.Simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of both models is one grade;while both the average relative error and the posterior error ratio of the improved model are lower than those of the traditional one.The prediction accuracy of the improved model is hence higher than that of the traditional one,and can be suitable to predict the maintenance and repair costs of a substation.Finally,the improved grey model is used to predict the maintenance and repair costs during 2019 to 2021 of a specified substation in a city.

关键词

全寿命周期成本/检运成本/GM(1,1)预测/初始值/背景值

Key words

life cycle cost/maintenance and repair costs/traditional grey model/initial value/background value

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金(51977013)

国家电网有限公司总部指南科技项目(5500-202322539A-3-2-ZN)

出版年

2024

电力科学与技术学报

长沙理工大学

电力科学与技术学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心

影响因子：0.85

ISSN：1673-9140

参考文献量20

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