粤港澳大湾区未来城市三维扩张形态及机制探究
Exploring the Forms and Mechanisms of Future Three-dimension Urban Expansion in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
解玮 1孙文勇 1蔡澍瑶1
作者信息
- 1. 中国城市规划设计研究院深圳分院,广东深圳,518040
- 折叠
摘要
随着现代城市空间的立体化发展,从三维层面定量研究城市扩张对解决城市问题具有重要意义.当前已有城市扩张研究更多是基于二维空间开展,对大尺度城市三维形态增长预测研究较少,这限制了对城市宏观空间形态未来发展的立体化认识.以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象,研究并预测城市群尺度的三维形态增长.具体而言,基于PLUS模型挖掘2010～2020年间居住、商业和工业城市用地增长规律并预测未来居住、商业和工业城市用地扩张情况,在此基础上,利用高度驱动因子结合随机森林模型分析城市三维扩张机制及未来形态.结果表明,在存量发展时代,城市群内建设空间增长主要在核心城市的都市圈中外围,外围山区县随着基础设施提升有可能发展成为特色化的乡镇建设空间.城市群一体化建设应该加强规划引导、因地制宜,充分发挥既有基础设施建设,推动公共交通驱动的增长模式.
Abstract
With the three-dimensional development of modern urban space,quantitative research on urban expansion from the three-dimensional level is of great significance in solving urban problems.Current urban expansion studies are more based on two-dimensional space,and there are fewer studies on predicting the three-dimensional morphological growth of large-scale cities,which limits the three-dimensional understanding of the future development of urban macrospatial patterns.In this paper,we take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the research object,and study the prediction of three-dimensional morphological growth at the scale of urban agglomeration.Specifically,based on the PLUS model,we explore the growth patterns of residential,commercial and industrial urban land use between 2010 and 2020 and predicts the future expansion of residential,commercial and industrial urban land use,based on which,we analyze the mechanism of three-dimensional urban expansion and its future shape by using the height-driven factor combined with the random forest model.The results show that in the era of stock development,the growth of construction space within the urban agglomeration is mainly in the middle and periphery of the metropolitan area in the core cities,and the peripheral mountainous counties may develop into characteristic township construction space with the improvement of infrastructure.The integrated construction of urban agglomerations should strengthen planning guidance,adapt to local conditions,make full use of established infrastructure,and promote public transportation-driven growth patterns.
关键词
城市三维扩张/城市扩张机制/PLUS/随机森林/粤港澳大湾区Key words
3D Urban Sprawl/Urban Sprawl Mechanism/PLUS/Random Forest/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area引用本文复制引用
基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3800101)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据