中国碳达峰城市主要经济社会特征研究
Research on the Main Economic and Social Characteristics of Carbon Peak Cities in China
康文梅 1王谋2
作者信息
- 1. 忻州师范学院经济管理系,山西忻州,034000;中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京,100732
- 2. 中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京,100732;中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京,102488;中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京,100710
- 折叠
摘要
城市是实现碳达峰目标的重要载体和关键战场,深入分析我国城市碳排放达峰城市特征,有助于科学推进碳达峰工作.通过条件判断函数和最值函数构建了城市碳排放达峰状态判断方法,对2000-2017年我国285个地级及以上城市的碳排放达峰状态进行了判断,并在此基础上总结了不同达峰类型城市的社会经济特征,发现:(1)目前我国达峰城市有68个,占到总样本城市的23.86％,达峰城市总排放占到全国的28.80％.碳达峰城市的达峰时间为2010～2012年,峰值最高的城市为上海市,最小为浙江省舟山市.(2)当前达峰的58个城市(去除10个衰退达峰城市)大致可以分为五类:第一类城市主要特征为峰值低、经济社会发展水平高,如北京;第二类城市主要特征为峰值比较低、经济社会发展水平高,如上海、深圳等;第三类城市主要特征为峰值比较低、经济社会发展水平较高,如扬州、淄博等;第四类城市主要特征为峰值较低,经济社会发展水平较低,如安庆、大同等;第五类城市主要特征为峰值高,经济社会发展水平高,如乌海.(3)排除极端情况下,我国碳达峰城市主要经济社会特征为:人均碳排放约为9～10t,人均GDP约为46099.49～69378.99元(以2000年不变价计算),三产占比约为40％～45％,城镇化率约为55％～80％.
Abstract
Cities are important carriers and key battlefields to achieve carbon peak goal.An in-depth analysis of the characteristics of cities achieving carbon emission peak in China is helpful to promote the work of carbon peak scientifically.This paper constructs the judgment method of urban carbon emission peak state through condition judgment function and maximum value function,judges the carbon emission peak state of 285 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2000 to 2017,and summarizes the socio-economic characteristics of different carbon peak types of cities,so as to provide reference standards for judging whether Chinese cities achieve carbon peak.The main conclusions include:1)At present,68 cities in China have achieved the carbon emission peak,accounting for 23.86％of the total sample cities,and the total emission of carbon peak cities accounts for 28.80％of the country.The peak time of carbon peak cities is from 2010 to 2012.The city with the highest peak is Shanghai,and the smallest is Zhoushan City,Zhejiang Province.2)Without considering the 10 declining carbon peak cities,the 58 carbon peak cities can be roughly divided into five categories:the first category is characterized by low peak value and high level of economic and social development,such as Beijing;the second category is characterized by relatively low peak value and high level of economic and social development,such as Shanghai,Shenzhen,etc.;the main characteristics of cities in the third category are relatively low peak value and higher level of economic and social development,such as Yangzhou,Zibo,etc.;the main characteristics of the fourth category of cities are relatively low peak value and the level of economic and social development,such as Anqing and Datong;the main characteristic of the fifth category is the high peak value and the high level of economic and social development,such as Wuhai.3)Excluding extreme cases,the main economic and social characteristics of China's carbon peak cities are:per capita carbon emissions are about 9-10 tons,per capita GDP is about 46,099.49 to 69,378.99 yuan(calculated at constant prices in 2000),and the proportion of tertiary industries is about 40％～45％,and the urbanization rate is about 55％～80％.
关键词
碳达峰/城市/特征研究/气候变化Key words
Carbon Emission Peak/City/Characteristic Research/Climate Change引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA111)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据