CAS视角下洪水风险治理的"构成"与"生成"
Constructivism and Generativism in Flood Risk Governance From the Perspective of Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS)
尚雪峰 1仇保兴2
作者信息
- 1. 天津大学,天津,300072
- 2. 国际欧亚科学院
- 折叠
摘要
面对气候变化和城市发展的不确定性,洪水风险治理需兼顾稳定性与适应性.文章基于复杂适应系统理论,探讨了结合"构成"与"生成"理念的洪水风险治理框架,旨在平衡稳定性与适应性的需求.分析了两种方法在洪水风险治理中的理论基础与应用,识别了三个核心问题:构成机制如何在保障稳定的同时支持生成机制的创新与适应,生成机制如何应对风险的复杂性与不确定性,以及如何有效整合这两种机制以实现系统可持续.提出了多层互联复合网络和积木—内部模型—标识的适应性主体机制等解决方案,强调反馈循环与迭代学习的重要性,为决策者在复杂环境中寻找平衡提供了新的思路.
Abstract
Facing the uncertainties of climate change and urban development,flood risk governance needs to balance stability with adaptability.This paper,based on the theory of Complex Adaptive Systems(CAS),explores a flood risk governance framework integrating the concepts of'constructivism'and'generativism',aiming to balance the needs for stability and adaptability.The paper analyzes the theoretical foundation and application development of these two approaches in flood risk governance,identifying three core issues:how the constructivism mechanism can support the innovation and adaptation of the generativism mechanism while ensuring stability;how the generativism mechanism can address the complexity and uncertainty of risk;and how to effectively integrate these two mechanisms.Solutions such as a multi-layer interconnected hybrid complex network and a building block-internal model-tagging adaptive agent mechanism are proposed,emphasizing the importance of feedback loops and iterative learning,providing new perspectives for decision-makers to find balance in complex environments.
关键词
洪水风险治理/复杂适应系统/构成/生成Key words
Flood Risk Governance/Complex Adaptive Systems/Constructivism/Generativism引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据