基于人群出行网络的超大城市内部公共卫生风险关联研究
Research on the Internal Correlation of Public Health Risks in Mega-Cities based on the Mass Travel Network
刘伦 1王辉 2史方晨3
作者信息
- 1. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京,100871;北京大学公共治理研究所,北京,100871
- 2. 清华大学建筑学院,北京,100084
- 3. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京,100871
- 折叠
摘要
公共卫生风险是超大城市面临的重要挑战,如何能够科学把握公共卫生事件在超大城市中的传播规律,并由此制定高效的管控策略是一项城市应急管理重要命题.基于人群时空流动这一公共卫生风险传播基础机制,借鉴复杂网络渗流理论,提出一种超大城市公共卫生风险关联识别方法.以北京、成都为例,利用手机信令大数据进行实证应用,分析城市空间公共卫生风险关联.研究发现,城市内部高风险关联片区存在空间跳跃性,这一特点应纳入应急管控考虑.进一步,研究发现基于风险关联的管控策略在成本效益上优于基于空间邻近性的策略.
Abstract
Public health risk presents a significant challenge for megacities.Understanding the transmission patterns of public health events within these urban centers and developing effective management strategies are crucial aspects of urban emergency management.This study proposes a method for identifying public health risk linkages in megacities,drawing on the spatiotemporal dynamics of population movement and incorporating theories of complex network percolation.Using Beijing and Chengdu as case studies,the research employs big data from mobile phone signals for empirical application and analyzes the spatial linkages of public health risks within urban spaces.Findings indicate the existence of spatial jumps in high-risk linked areas within cities,a characteristic that should be considered in emergency management.Furthermore,the study reveals that management strategies based on risk linkages are more cost-effective than those based on spatial proximity,offering scientific support for the formulation of efficient public health emergency strategies.
关键词
城市公共卫生/应急管理/出行行为/网络科学/渗流理论Key words
Urban Public Health/Emergency Management/Urban mobility/Network Science/Percolation Theory引用本文复制引用
基金项目
北京市社会科学基金重点项目(20GLA003)
东湖高新区国家智能社会治理实验综合基地项目()
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据