摘要
流动人口定居地选择是影响未来城镇化格局的关键并受到多维度要素的影响.利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,从2000年、2010年、2017年三个时间截面分析等级、地理、交通条件和社会经济要素影响下流动人口的长期定居地选择偏好演变.结果发现:北上广深的吸引力下降明显,本省、省会的吸引力显著增强,城市规模偏好持续存在;社会因素中同乡网络的影响大幅下降,语言差异的作用逐渐增加;经济(收入差距)、交通(火车与高铁)因素的影响呈缓慢减弱趋势;地理因素的影响最弱;不同区域、不同流动人群对各类要素的偏好具有一定差异.提出规划应积极运用人口流动规律,重视北上广深吸引力下降,顺应人口极化和回流趋势等启示.
Abstract
The choice of settlement destination by migrants is a critical factor shaping urbanization patterns,influenced by multidimensional factors.This study employs data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey to systematically analyze the evolution of preferences for long-term settlement locations among the floating population,considering hierarchical,geographical,transportation,and socio-economic factors across three time points:2000,2010,and 2017.The findings reveal a significant decrease in the attractiveness of first-tier cities,alongside a notable increase in the appeal of home provinces and provincial capitals,with a persistent preference for city size.Social factors,such as hometown networks,exhibit a substantial decrease in influence,while the impact of language differences gradually rises.Economic factors,like income disparity,and transportation factors,including rail and high-speed rail,show a gradual weakening of influence,with geographical factors exerting the weakest impact.Variances in preferences for these factors are observed among different regions and demographic groups within the floating population.This study recommends leveraging the principles of population mobility in urban planning,addressing the waning allure of first-tier cities,and adapting to the trends of population polarization and return migration.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3800801)
国家自然科学基金(52208074)
国家自然科学基金(52078352)
上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司暨长三角城市群智能规划协同创新中心科研课题(KY-2023-YB-A03)
维普
万方数据