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城投平台担保网络风险传导与影响因素研究

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金融安全是国家安全的重要组成部分,维护金融安全,守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线是我国金融健康发展的重要保障.通过搜集X省2011—2023年间城投平台担保数据,绘制担保网络,运用社会网络分析方法,探究担保网络的拓扑特征、识别系统性重要机构,再利用QAP回归分析法对担保行为的影响因素进行验证.研究发现:X省城投平台担保网络具有小世界的特征,担保关系易成为系统性风险的潜在隐患;度中心性和结构洞的差异性正向影响担保关系,企业注册地址和企业产业的相似性正向影响担保关系,企业性质的差异性负向影响担保关系.为防范与化解地方城投平台因担保行为存在的潜在风险,提出针对性政策建议.
Risk Transmission and Influencing Factors of Guarantee Network of Urban Investment Platform
Financial stability is an important component of national security. Ensuring financial stability and pre-venting systemic financial risks are critical for the healthy development of China's financial industry. This paper employs social network analysis to examine the guarantee data from province X's urban investment platform,cov-ering the period from 2011 to 2023. We construct the guarantee network,explore its topological characteristics,and identify systematically important institutions. Using QAP regression analysis,we verify the factors influencing guaranteeing behavior. The results indicate that the guarantee network of province X's urban investment platform exhibits small-world characteristics,suggesting potential risks within guarantee relationships. Variations in degree centrality and the presence of structural holes positively influence guarantee relationships,while similarities in en-terprise registration locations and industries also have a positive effect. In contrast,differences in enterprise nature negatively impact guarantee relationships.

urban investment platformguarantee networkrisk transmissionnetwork analysisQAP regression analysis

赵玮嘉、朱义鑫

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新疆财经大学信息管理学院

城投平台 担保网络 风险传导 网络分析法 QAP回归分析

2024

城市观察
广州市社会科学界联合会

城市观察

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.591
ISSN:1674-7178
年,卷(期):2024.93(5)