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汽车产业电动化转型对就业的影响

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当前,全球汽车产业正经历电动化、网联化、智能化和共享化的产业变革,其中尤以电动化进程和趋势最为显著.新能源汽车产业链中动力电池、电机、电控取代了传统燃油车的变速箱、发动机等环节,产业环节的变化必将带来人才需求结构的变化,我国汽车产业所带动的相关从业人员规模高达千万量级,深入研究电动化对于我国汽车产业就业的影响意义深远.本文通过构建人才需求预测模型,基于对未来汽车产业电动化趋势的预判,预测了汽车产业各个环节的人才需求情况,并提出应对汽车产业电动化趋势变化的就业应对建议.研究表明,汽车产业的变革将直接和间接催生大量新兴就业,但同时电动化过程也会对传统的汽车就业岗位带来冲击.其中,生产制造环节减少的就业岗位最多,整车及零部件的研发环节的就业岗位影响则不太明显.汽车电动化趋势下的岗位专业技能要求也发生了较大的变化,从机械设计制造、内燃机、变速器等专业转向了化学、材料、电子电气、软件工程等专业.令人鼓舞的是,电动化推进了汽车产业智能化和网联化的发展,也带动了智能网联汽车相关的大量就业岗位需求.在汽车产业规模逐步增加的总体发展趋势下,生产制造岗位总数减少以及研发岗位占比提升,推动汽车产业就业岗位向高端化发展,岗位要求和岗位收入均有所提升.为了应对岗位需求变化对汽车产业电动化转型带来的影响,以及对社会就业的冲击,国家层面应该提前做好相关研究,制定产业发展和就业政策预案,确保产业顺利转型与社会平稳过渡.
Impact of Electrification Transformation of Automobile Industry on the Employment
At present,the global automotive industry is undergoing industrial changes characterized by electrification,networking,intelligence,and sharing,with the process and trend of electrification being the most significant.In the new energy vehicle industry chain,power batteries,motors,and electronic controls have replaced traditional fuel vehicle components such as transmissions and engines.Changes in industrial segments will inevitably bring about changes in the structure of talent demand.China's automotive industry drives a related workforce of up to 10 million people.Studying the impact of electrification on China's automotive industry employment has far-reaching significance.This article predicts the talent demand in various segments of the automotive industry by constructing a talent demand forecasting model based on predictions of future trends in automotive industry electrification.It also proposes employment response suggestions to cope with changes in the trend of automotive industry electrification.Research shows that changes in the automotive industry will directly and indirectly generate a large number of new jobs,but the electrification process will also impact traditional automotive employment positions.Among them,the manufacturing segment will see the largest reduction in jobs,while the impact on jobs in the research and development of vehicles and components is less significant.The professional skill requirements for positions under the automotive electrification trend have also undergone significant changes,shifting from majors such as mechanical design and manufacturing,internal combustion engines,and transmissions to chemistry,materials science,electrical and electronics,software engineering,and other majors.Encouragingly,electrification has promoted the development of intelligent and connected vehicles in the automotive industry,driving significant job demand in intelligent connected vehicle-related fields.As the overall development trend of the automotive industry gradually increases,the total number of manufacturing jobs decreases,and the proportion of research and development positions increases,pushing automotive industry jobs towards high-end development.Both job requirements and job income have increased.To address the impact of changing job demands on the electrification transformation of the automotive industry and the impact on social employment,relevant research should be conducted at the national level to formulate industrial development and employment policy plans to ensure a smooth industrial transformation and social transition.

automobile electrificationemployment effectindustry segmentpersonnel demand

鹿文亮、朱永彬、王晓明

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中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 100190

中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院 100190

汽车电动化 就业影响 产业环节 人员需求

能源基金会项目

2024

城市与环境研究

城市与环境研究

CSSCICHSSCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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