首页|国家空气质量提升行动计划实施效果评估及影响机制分析

国家空气质量提升行动计划实施效果评估及影响机制分析

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优化城市环境空气质量是实现可持续发展的关键举措,是推动城市化进程的现实需求,也是改善人民生活质量的必要路径.研究基于2013-2020年中国284个城市的面板数据,对中国城市环境空气质量进行了系统分析,在此基础上采用合成控制法和交互项模型对NAQI行动计划的实施效果和影响机制进行了考察.研究结果如下:(1)2013-2020年中国城市环境空气质量呈现出持续改善的变化趋势.其中,AQI、PM2.5和PM10年均值分别由 2013 年的 120.20、83.64μg/m3、138.94µg/m3 下降到 2020 年的 68.38、34.45µg/m3、59.25µg/m3.(2)2013-2020 年中国大部分城市的 AQI、PM2.5 和 PM10水平均有所改善,且城市间差异逐渐减小.其中,2020年AQI和PM2.5的高值区域(中度和重度污染区)主要集中在京津冀城市群、关中平原城市群和中原城市群等区域.(3)政策实施效果分析发现,NAQI行动计划实施对重点区域城市环境空气质量产生了积极的影响.NAQI行动计划实施后,重点区域AQI、PM2.5和PM10年均值分别多下降了 4.5%、10.08%和6.75%.但从局部来看,NAQI行动计划对不同城市的影响存在差异,该政策对部分城市的影响效果并不显著.(4)影响机制分析发现,NAQI行动计划会通过优化产业结构、降低污染排放和提高能源效率等途径对城市环境空气质量产生积极的影响.最后,基于研究发现提出了进一步优化城市环境空气质量的政策建议.
Implementation Effects Assessment and Impact Mechanism Analysis of the Action Plan for the National Air Quality Improvement
Optimizing urban ambient air quality is a key initiative to achieve sustainable development,a realistic need to promote urbanization,and a necessary path to improve people's quality of life.Based on the panel data of 284 cities in China from 2013 to 2020,the ambient air quality in Chinese cities was systematically analyzed,and on this basis,the implementation effect and influence mechanism of the action plan of"National Air Quality Improvement"(NAQI)were examined by using the synthetic control method and the interaction term model.The findings of the study are as follows:(1)China's urban ambient air quality showed a trend of continuous improvement from 2013 to 2020.The annual average values of AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 decreased from 120.20,83.64 μg/m3 and 138.94 μg/m3 in 2013 to 68.38,34.45 μg/m3 and 59.25 μg/m3 in 2020,respectively.(2)The levels of AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 improved in most Chinese cities from 2013 to 2020,and the differences between cities gradually decreased.Among them,the areas with high values of AQI and PM2.5 in 2020(moderately and heavily polluted areas)were mainly concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration,and the Central Plains urban agglomeration.(3)The analysis of the effect of policy implementation found that the implementation of the NAQI action plan had a positive impact on the quality of the urban environment in the key regions.After the implementation of the NAQI action plan,the annual average values of AQI,PM2.5 and PM10 in the key regions decreased by 4.5%,10.08%and 6.75%more respectively.However,there are differences in the impacts of the NAQI action plan on different cities,and the impacts of this policy on some cities(e.g.,Linfen City)are not significant.(4)The analysis of the impact mechanism found that the NAQI action plan would have a positive impact on urban ambient air quality through optimizing the industrial structure,reducing the pollution emission and improving the energy efficiency,while the conduction pathway,such as strengthening the urban construction,has not yet played a role.Finally,policy recommendations for further optimizing urban ambient air quality are proposed based on the research findings.

ambient air qualityimprovement action planpolicy effectsinfluence mechanismssynthetic control method

王宇杰、陈飞宇、张婧男

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太原理工大学经济管理学院 030024

中国矿业大学经济管理学院 221116

北京化工大学化学学院 100029

环境空气质量 提升行动计划 政策效应 影响机制 合成控制法

国家自然科学基金面上项目教育部人文社会科学研究项目山西省基础研究计划(自由探索类)面上项目山西省哲学社会科学规划课题

7227419423YJCZH2302023030212210532023YY044

2024

城市与环境研究

城市与环境研究

CSSCICHSSCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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