首页|基于PLUS-InVEST模型的湖南省土地利用模拟规划与碳储量评估

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的湖南省土地利用模拟规划与碳储量评估

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化石燃料的燃烧和土地利用转变是增加二氧化碳排放最主要的方式,对土地资源进行提前布局及规划,从而避免土地利用反复变化造成碳排放.基于PLUS模型模拟湖南省 2020 年土地利用数据,其土地利用模拟数据与土地利用现状数据的Kappa系数达 0.84,模拟精度高;模拟了湖南省 2030 年生态、自然及经济情景下的土地利用,并基于InVEST模型模拟湖南省 2030 年不同情景下碳储量空间分布,2030 年湖南省生态情景下林地面积最大,为125 255.74 km2,碳储量最大,其数值为 3 136 255 749 t;经济情景下建设用地最多,达到 7 792.31 km2,碳储量最小,其数值为 3 130 186 347 t;基于湖南省 2030 年不同情景下土地利用模拟数据及碳储量空间分布数据,对湖南省未来土地利用规划作出数据支持.
Assessment and Planning of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Hunan Province Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model
Land-use transformation is also one of the main ways causing carbon emissions.In China,from 2000 to 2020,the construction land increased by about 94000 square kilometers,leading to a reduction of 350 million tons of carbon in the national soil carbon reservoir.Ear-ly layout and planning of land resources can help avoid repeated changes in land use that contribute to carbon emissions.Based on the PLUS model,the simulation of land-use data in Hunan Province in 2020 yielded a Kappa coefficient of 0.84 when compared to the actual land-use data,indicating high simulation accuracy.The simulation extended to predict land use in Hunan Province for 2030 under ecological,natural,and economic scenarios.Using the InVEST model,the spatial distribution of carbon storage under different scenarios in Hunan Province in 2030 was simulated.In the ecological scenario for 2030,the largest land area is covered by forests at 125255.74 square kilometers,with the highest carbon storage of 3136255749 tons.In the economic scenario,construction land covers the most area at 7792.31 square kilometers,with the smallest carbon storage of 3130186347 tons.Based on the simulated land-use data and carbon storage distribution data for different scenarios in Hunan Province in 2030,which provides data support for future land-use planning in the province.

land usePLUS modelmultiple scenarioscarbon stock

黄计、黄琦、邓森

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湖南省工程勘察院有限公司,湖南 娄底 417000

湖南省赛辉项目管理有限公司,湖南 娄底 417000

土地利用规划 PLUS模型 多情景 碳储量

2024

城市勘测
中国城市规划协会 武汉市测绘研究院

城市勘测

影响因子:0.488
ISSN:1672-8262
年,卷(期):2024.(6)