Residual life prediction of compensation capacitors based on cluster of influence factors and distribution fitting
Compensation capacitor is an important equipment to ensure the normal transmission of jointless track circuit,which is widely installed in high-speed lines in China.In order to study the residual life of a compensation capacitor in the actual environment,a method based on cluster of influence factors and distribution fitting was proposed.Firstly,a data model of degradation trend of compensation capacitors was established based on the maintenance data.The potential influence factors related to the function degradation of compensation capacitors were analyzed.A mathematical model was established by taking these influence factors as characteristic attributes.The characteristic sample set was constructed based on historical maintenance data.Multiple characteristic sample sets were clustered by clustering algorithm to obtain sub-class characteristic sample sets.For each sub-class characteristic sample set,the fitting parameters of Weibull distribution were carried out by maximum likelihood estimation method.Finally,the residual life was calculated by the membership degree of a compensation capacitor and each sub-class characteristic sample set and the calculated distribution curve.In order to verify the performance of the method proposed in this paper,the accuracy of the residual life prediction of a single compensation capacitor and the fault number prediction of the of compensation capacitors are compared with methods using LSTM and Weibull distribution,respectively.The experimental results based on more than 27 000 pieces of actual maintenance data of compensation capacitors are shown as follows.(1)In the prediction of the residual life of a single compensation capacitor,the highest prediction accuracy of the proposed method and the Weibull distribution method is 95.0%and 87.0%respectively,and the performance of the proposed method decreases more slowly with the increase of test samples.(2)In the fault number prediction of compensation capacitors,the accuracy of the proposed method is improved by 5.6 percentage points and 41.3 percentage points respectively compared with the fault number prediction methods based on LSTM and Weibull distribution.
compensation capacitordynamic detectionresidual life predictioncluster analysisdistribution fitting
国家科技期刊平台
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