Identification and coupled evolution analysis of engineering quality risks in complex mountainous railway tunnel survey and design
The work during the survey and design phase of railway tunnel engineering has a significant impact on the overall lifecycle quality of the project. However,the complex geological conditions and frequent natural disasters in mountainous areas pose great challenges to the survey and design of railway tunnels. Moreover,the quality risks of railway engineering are complex,and the occurrence of risk events is usually the result of the coupling of multiple risks. Current research on railway tunnels mostly focuses on key technologies,construction safety,and green performance,with few studies based on the survey and design stages of mountainous railway tunnels regarding quality risk coupling. To improve the effectiveness of quality objectives in tunnel engineering from the survey and design stages,a quality risk coupling effect analysis model based on catastrophe theory was proposed. This research first identified the sources of quality risk in complex mountainous railway tunnels from both internal (personnel,technology,management) and external (geological,social,natural) dimensions and categorized risk factors by using improved Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA). Then,this research study analyzed the formation mechanism of multi-risk factor coupling and assessed the coupling effects of quality risk in railway tunnel survey and design based on catastrophe theory in terms of degree and stability,constructed a cusp catastrophe model for evolutionary analysis of risk coupling paths. Finally,by taking a complex mountainous railway tunnel as an example,the proposed method was validated,and its risk coupling level was determined to be Level Ⅲ,indicating a high degree of risk coupling that requires vigilance but maintains overall system stability. This research provides theoretical support for decision-making in engineering quality risk management for complex mountainous railway tunnel survey and design.
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