Predicting the risk of grassland caterpillar infesta-tion based on M axEnt model in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
[Objective]Grassland caterpillars are significant pests on Qingha-Tibet Plateau,impacting the func-tioning of alpine grassland ecosystems.Recent control experiments suggest that warming and nitrogen deposition may facilitate caterpillar growth and population expansion,potentially intensify grassland caterpillar infestation due to cli-mate change.However,conflicting findings exist regarding the effects of nitrogen deposition on caterpillar feeding be-havior.Consequently,understanding how grassland caterpillars respond to climate change remains incomplete.[Method]To predict future grassland caterpillar infestation under climate change,we utilized 24 occurrence sites ob-tained from the public literature.Employing MaxEnt model and GIS software,we analyzed current(2021-2040)and future(2081-2100)potential occurrence zones under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs).[Result]1)Annual precipitation and slope emerged as dominant environmental factors influencing current and future caterpillar occurrence under both SSPs;2)Optimal future precipitation level for caterpillar occurrence were higher than the current level,with lower optimal slopeconditions;3)The future medium-high risk area for caterpillar occur-rence in grasslands decreased under both SSPs;4)Altitude ranges of future medium-high risk areas shifted downward under SSP126 and showed mixed upward and downward shift under SSP585.[Conclusion]Climate change is pro-jected to reduce grassland caterpillar infestations,with annual precipitation being a key factor.However,existing field controlled experiments may not fully capture caterpillars responses to climate change,emphasizing the need for future research focusing on precipitation dynamics.
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