Demand Forecast and Influencing Factors Analysis of Elderly Care Services in the Yangtze River Delta
Based on the number of elderly people aged 65 and above in the Yangtze River Delta,the GM(1,1)model is used to predict the demand for elderly care services in the Yangtze River Delta,and re-gression analysis is used to empirically test the influencing factors of elderly care service demand.It is shown that the elderly in the Yangtze River Delta have great demand for elderly care services,among which Jiangsu has the largest demand for elderly care services,followed by Zhejiang,Anhui and Shanghai.It is estimated that by 2040,the demand for elderly care beds in the Yangtze River Delta will reach 2.635 3 mil-lion,and the growth rate of elderly care bed supply is lower than that of population aging.Regression analysis shows that cultural level,work situation,income level and other influencing factors have statistical significance,and have an impact on the demand for elderly care services.
Yangtze River Deltademand for elderly care servicesgray predictioninfluence factors
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
