首页|CMA-MESO模式对2020年夏季四川盆地及周边降水预报性能的评估

CMA-MESO模式对2020年夏季四川盆地及周边降水预报性能的评估

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  • 维普
利用 2020年夏季(6～8月)CMA-MESO模式逐日 08:00(北京时,下同)起报的 12～36 h逐时降水预报数据和地面—卫星—雷达三源融合逐时降水产品,着眼于小时尺度降水特征,细致评估了CMA-MESO对四川盆地及周边地区的降水预报性能.结果表明,CMA-MESO较好把握了夏季降水的空间分布特征,即小时平均降水量和降水频率的大值区位于四川盆地西部、北部和东部的高海拔山区,而降水强度大值区主要位于山脉迎风坡一侧,但CMA-MESO预报的降水量和频率大值区位置较观测偏南.CMA-MESO合理描述了研究区域内降水量和频率峰值时间位相自西向东逐步滞后的特征,能够把握区域平均的降水量和频率清晨主峰、傍晚次峰的双峰形态以及降水强度的单峰特征,但预报的降水日变化位相超前于观测.CMA-MESO预报的逐时降水量均大于观测,明显的降水量预报正偏差发生于夜间(21:00至次日03:00)和午后至傍晚(14:00～20:00),分别由一般性降水(0.1～10 mm h-1)预报偏差和强降水(≥10 mm h-1)预报偏差主导,其偏差大值区分别位于青藏高原东南缘至四川盆地西部和四川盆地以东、以南地区,模式对热力和动力场的预报偏差结合地形的影响是降水量预报偏差的成因.
Precipitation Forecast Performance of CMA-MESO Model in the Sichuan Basin and Surrounding Areas during Summer 2020
This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of CMA-MESO(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale)model,a precipitation forecasting system,in predicting summer rainfall patterns in the Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas.The study is based on 12-36 h hourly precipitation forecast data obtained from CMA-MESO,starting at 0800 BJT(Beijing time),and hourly gauge-satellite-radar merged precipitation products.These data were collected during the summer months(June-August)of 2020.The findings reveal that CMA-MESO successfully captures the spatial distribution characteristics of summer precipitation.Observations show that higher mean hourly precipitation amounts and frequency values are primarily found in the high-altitude mountains to the west,north,and east of the Sichuan Basin.Similarly,higher precipitation intensities are mainly located on the windward slopes of these mountains.However,the forecasted centers of precipitation amount and frequency are located to the south of the observed locations.CMA-MESO reasonably reproduces the diurnal variation of mean summer precipitation.This includes the eastward-delayed diurnal peak phase of precipitation amount and frequency in the study region,the bimodal pattern with a morning peak and an evening subpeak of regional average precipitation amount and frequency,and a single diurnal peak of regional mean precipitation intensity.However,the diurnal variation phase in the forecast precedes that of the observations.Furthermore,the forecasted hourly precipitation amount is larger than the observed values.Notable positive deviations mostly occur at night(2100 BJT-0300 BJT)and from afternoon to evening(1400 BJT-2000 BJT).The nocturnal deviations are mainly contributed by forecast deviations of general rainfall(0.1-10 mm h-1)and the major parts were observed from the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to the western Sichuan Basin.The afternoon deviations are mainly contributed by forecast deviations of heavy rainfall(≥10 mm h-1)and mainly locate in the east and south of the Sichuan Basin.The forecasted deviations can be attributed to a combination of thermal and dynamic fields along with the influence of topography on rainfall.

Sichuan Basin and the surrounding areasHourly precipitation characteristicsCMA-MESO modelEvaluation of precipitation forecast

叶茂、吴钲、翟丹华、陈法敬

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致灾降水数值模式与人工智能融合预报关键技术研究重点实验室/重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆 401147

致灾降水数值模式与人工智能融合预报关键技术研究重点实验室/重庆市气象台,重庆 401147

中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081

四川盆地及周边 小时尺度降水特征 CMA-MESO模式 预报降水评估

国家重点研发计划项目重庆市自然科学基金面上项目重庆市气象部门青年基金项目重庆市气象部门智慧气象技术创新团队项目

2021YFB3901400cstc2021jcyjmsxmX0698QNJJ-202207ZHCXTD-202002

2024

10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2304.22173

大气科学
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：2.11
ISSN：1006-9895
年,卷(期)：2024.48(5)