Refined Investigation of"One Slope and One Threshold"for Geological Disasters in Zhejiang Province:A Case Study of Shengzhou Risk Prevention Area
Determining the"One slope and One Threshold"for geological disasters in Zhejiang Province is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in regional risk prevention zones.Taking Shengzhou City,a typical mountainous county located in the Meitai rain-prone region of Zhejiang Province,as an illustrative case,this study analyzed the correlation rules between 270 historical geological disasters and rainfall events.Subsequently,two sets of rainfall threshold reference values were derived using the statistical pro-bability method and the extreme value method respectively.Furthermore,the"one slope,one threshold"calculation and case verification for geological disaster risk prevention areas were achieved by integrating geological background factors with a vulnerability comprehensive index method.The results indicate a high consistency between the occurrence of geological disasters in Shengzhou City and the impact of typhoons and rainstorms.Specifically,the average values of 1-hour and 3-hour early warning data calculated using the extreme value method are lower than those obtained through the probability method,whereas the opposite trend is observed for 6-hour,12-hour,and 24-hour conditions.This discrepancy is also evident in the forecast accuracy during Typhoon"Fireworks."The findings align more closely with the actual situation of geological disaster management in Shengzhou.The research outcomes can provide a foundation and reference for detailed investigation and prediction of geological hazards in Zhejiang Province and related areas.
risk prevention areaone slope and one thresholdrainfall threshold curveShengzhou City
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