基于短中期嵌套策略的水风光协同运行模型研究
Study on Coordinated Operation Model of Hydro-wind-photovoltaic based on Short and Medium Term Nested Strategies
王现勋 1贾克 2高文卓 1何奇锴 1姚华明3
作者信息
- 1. 长江大学资源与环境学院,湖北省 武汉市 430100
- 2. 长江水利委员会水文局,湖北省 武汉市 430010;湖北一方科技发展有限责任公司,湖北省 武汉市 430010
- 3. 长江大学资源与环境学院,湖北省 武汉市 430100;中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北省 宜昌市 443000
- 折叠
摘要
水风光等多种清洁能源协同运行已成为实现能源可持续开发利用的关键途径之一.现有水风光协同研究多聚焦于中期与长期时间尺度的嵌套,忽略了中期时间尺度下考虑天气连续静稳特性的水风光协同优化亦可指导水风光短期运行,未深入发挥短中期嵌套下的水风光协同潜力.鉴于此,本文提出短中期嵌套策略,构建数学模型,中期调度模型以水风光总出力与总负荷偏差最小为目标,短期调度模型以水电发电量最大为目标,并将中期首日末水位作为短期调度边界,进而考虑不同量级的预报误差,探讨中期发电计划对短期发电运行的指导效果.以黄河上游梯级水电与风光电协同运行为例的结果表明:使用本文所建短中期嵌套模型,中期调度中水电与风光电的日间协同计划可由短期调度实现,体现了中期指导短期的效果(偏差百分比为 2.30%～5.06%),挖掘了水电在日间补偿调节风光电的潜力,同时,该指导效果将随着预报误差的增加而变弱(偏差百分比由3.85%变至 8.53%).
Abstract
Coordinated operation of diverse clean energy sources,such as hydro,wind,and photovoltaic power,has become a critical approach for achieving sustainable energy development and utilization.Existing research on hydro-wind-photovoltaic coordination predominantly focuses on the integration of medium and long term time scales,overlooking the fact that medium term optimization considering continuous stable weather conditions can also guide short term operations.Consequently,the potential for coordination across both short and medium term scales has not been fully realized.In response to this gap,this paper proposes a nested short and medium term strategy and develops a mathematical model.The medium term scheduling model aims to minimize the deviation between total hydro-wind-photovoltaic output and total load,while the short term scheduling model aims to maximize the hydropower generation,and uses the water level at the end of the first day of the medium term scheduling serving as the boundary for short term scheduling,and considers forecast errors of different magnitudes,explores the effectiveness of medium term plans in guiding short term operations.Using the coordinated operation of hydroelectric,wind,and photovoltaic power in the upper reaches of the Yellow River as a case study,the results show that the proposed nested model enables the day-to-day coordination plans from the medium term schedule to be realized through short term scheduling,demonstrating the guiding effect of the medium term on the short term(with deviation percentages ranging from 2.30%to 5.06%).Additionally,it reveals the potential of hydroelectric power to compensate for wind and solar fluctuations during the day.However,this guiding effect deteriorates as forecast errors increase(with deviation percentages from 3.85%to 8.53%).
关键词
水风光互补/运行模拟/短中期嵌套/黄河上游梯级/预报误差Key words
hydro-wind-photovoltaic/complementarity/short and medium term nested/error引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据