Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and dynamic trends of cultivated land conversion in county:A case study of Anhui Province
Cultivated land is the material basis of national food security.Grasping the spatial-temporal evolution laws and dynamic trends of cultivated land conversion is of great significance for ensuring food supply and sustainable development.Taking Anhui Province as the research area,based on ArcGIS,GeoDa and Matlab software,the paper extracted the data of cultivated land conversion in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2020,adopted exploratory spatial data analysis method from the county scale to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land conversion,and analyzed the dynamic evolution trend of cultivated land conversion by MarKov chain,to provide scientific basis for rational control of arable land conversion.The results showed that the high-value areas of cultivated land conversion in Anhui Province were mainly located in the key development areas of central Anhui Province(Hefei metropolitan area),the low-value areas were mainly concentrated in some economically underdeveloped areas in the north and south of Anhui Province,and the spatial agglomeration showed a trend of first decreasing,then increasing and then decreasing,and the agglomeration effect gradually weakens,the cold and hot spots formed"block-like hot spot clusters"and"point-like cold spot clusters"in space.The trend of cultivated land conversion level at county level in Anhui Province was as follows:it was not stable enough among different grades and easy to transfer;the level transfer basically occurred between adjacent types,and it was difficult to realize the"jump"transfer.After considering the spatial factors,it was found that the differentiated level of cultivated land conversion in adjacent counties or districts had different degrees of influence on the probability of grade transfer in the county or district,with the increase of spatial spillover effect,the lower the probability of maintaining the original hierarchy was,the easier it was to transfer;the probability of a rank shift was affected by both the type of spatial lag and the initial rank.
conversion of cultivated landspatial-temporal evolutiondynamic trendexploratory spatial data analysisMarKov chain
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
