碳储量(Carbon storage，CS)影响陆地生态系统碳循环过程的稳定和平衡，定量评价CS时空变化与未来预测是实现区域可持续发展的关键环节，对区域生态环境管理具有重要意义。以黑土区典型农业小流域—阿什河流域为研究区，探讨以小流域为研究尺度的CS"历史-未来"时空变化，整合不同尺度下CS进而制定碳管理目标。结果表明，利用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型(Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs，InVEST)量化1995—2020年CS，总体减少171。42×104 t，年均损失达到6。87×104 t，以2010—2015年CS下降最显著。CS空间分布具有异质性，其高值区分布在流域上游区域。通过整合行政单元和水文单元尺度下的CS，以管理职责为导向，采用聚类分析方法划分该流域碳管理单元(3个单元和5个亚单元)。对各单元CS制定管理目标，利用CA-Markov模型预测自然情景和政策情景下2025年CS，表明碳管理措施的制定可有效减缓区域CS损失，减缓效率达47。52％。该研究可为明确黑土区农业小流域CS发展模式和可持续发展策略提供科学参考。
Temporal-spatial variation and prediction of carbon storage in the Ashi River Watershed in black soil region at different scales
Carbon storage (CS) significantly influences the stability and balance of the carbon cycling process within terrestrial ecosystems,a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal changes in CS,as well as future predictions,is a critical component in achieving regional sustainable development and holds considerable importance for regional ecological management. This paper focuses on the Ashi River Watershed,a typical agricultural watershed in the black soil region,to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in CS from a "historical-future" perspective at the watershed scale. The study integrates CS data across different scales to develop carbon management targets. The results indicate that the Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to quantify CS from 1995 to 2020,showing an overall decrease of 171.42 × 104 t,with an average annual loss of 6.87 × 104 t. The most significant decline occurred between 2010 and 2015. The spatial distribution of CS was heterogeneous,with high-value areas concentrated in the upstream regions of the watershed. Integrating CS at both administrative and hydrological unit scales and guided by management responsibilities,a clustering analysis was employed to delineate carbon management units within the watershed,resulting in three main units and five subunits. Management targets for CS were established for each unit,and the CA-Markov model was utilized to predict CS in 2025 under natural and policy scenarios. The results demonstrated that implementing carbon management measures could effectively mitigate regional CS loss,with a mitigation efficiency of 47.52％. This research provided a scientific reference for identifying the development patterns and sustainable strategies for CS in agricultural watersheds within the black soil region.
carbon storageInVEST modelhydrologic unitadministrative unitthe Ashi River Watershed
万方数据
维普
