Integration and Restructuring of Local Financing Platforms,Implicit Guarantee Expectations and Default Risks
In recent years,local government financing platforms have undergone a"reckless"style of development,resulting in a substantial increase in government implicit debt due to extensive bor-rowing,and a sharp rise in the default risks of local government financing platforms as well.As the primary financing force for local government infrastructure projects,the transformation of local financ-ing platforms has become a crucial approach to mitigating implicit debt risks.Based on a comprehen-sive credit risk model and an indefinite discrete recursive model,as well as the data from local fi-nancing platforms between 2017 and 2021,this paper conducts a study.The findings show that thein-tegration and restructuring of local financing platforms can leverage implicit guarantee expectations to subsequently reduce default risks.Under the moderating effect of implicit guarantee expectations,the integration and restructuring of local financing platforms can reduce default risks primarily through credit effects,operational effects,and interest rate effects.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that this impact is more significant among enterprises with smaller scales,weaker profitability,and regions with less developed economies.The extended analysis reveals that the integration for conglomerate enter-prises can not only reduce the default risks of local financing platforms but alsoprogressively diminish the dependence on the implicit guarantee expectations as the conglomerate's marketization develops.This constitutes a win-win choice.The above conclusion suggests that the integration and restructure of the local financing platforms can effectively reduce their default risks and further address the issues of hidden government debt.
local financing platformintegration and restructuringimplicit guarantee expectationsdefault risks
万方数据
维普
