The Impact of Industry Growth and Interindustry Linkages on China's Economic Growth
Regarding the impact of changes in industrial structure on the growth rate of real GDP,previous studies have often overlooked the role of inter-industry linkages.Industrial growth not only directly affects economic growth,but may also indirectly affect economic growth by influencing other industries.Empirical studies have shown that the growth of industrial real output value can pro-mote the growth of service industry output value,but reduce the growth of agricultural output value;the growth of actual output value in the service industry will suppress the growth of industrial output value and reduce the relative price growth rate of the service industry;the growth of actual agricul-tural output value will reduce the relative price growth of the service industry.Taking into account the correlation between industries,the decomposition results of the economic growth rate show that the net effect of China's industrial output value growth driving China's economic growth from 1979 to 2022 is 5.72％,of which the indirect effect of affecting the growth of other industries'output val-ue and changes in price structure is 1.2％.The net effect of the growth of service industry output value driving economic growth is 2.49％,of which the indirect effect is-1.18％.Further research shows that the net effect of industrial growth can explain 78％of the differences in actual output growth rates between provincial regions in China.From 1979 to 2022,China's economic growth was mainly driven by industrial growth(contributing 64.1％),which is higher than the direct effect without considering industrial linkages(contributing 50.68％).In addition,the indirect effects of service indus-try growth have had a significant hindering effect on economic growth.
economic growthprimary,secondary and tertiary industriesindustry correlationde-composition of growth rate
万方数据
维普
